If McGrath is leading, it would be the first sign of Scenario B and a short, unhappy night for Republicans. If this one is even close, it’s good news for Democrats, but within the confines of Scenario A. The race tests key components of the parties’ coalition. It’s also a good test because the district includes the younger, more liberal voters around the University of Kentucky, affluent suburbanites and rural, blue-collar voters. McGrath has outraised Barr and is running neck-and-neck with him in a district that has been trending Republican. RACE NOTES: President Trump carried this district by 15 points in 2016. She has not run traditional attack ads, but outside groups have run negative ads on her behalf. She has opened field offices in each of the district's 20 far-flung counties, no matter the population. McGrath has spent money in unorthodox ways. He has been a lawyer, a political appointee and an elected congressman for the majority of his careerĭEMOCRAT: Amy McGrath is a former Marine fighter pilot. Andy Barr won a third term by 22 points in 2016 election.
REPUBLICAN INCUMBENT – Republican seat since 2013 With scenarios A) the expected split, B) the blue wave and C) the red wall in mind, you can watch the election unfold with an eye on key races as polls close hour by hour. The other is that suburbanites will come back to the GOP and help Republicans hold the House and make bigger gains in the Senate. One is that polls have missed a considerable number of new and low-frequency Democratic voters and the Blue Team is headed for a smashing victory in the House and may even put the Senate in play. Less likely, but not remote, are two other scenarios. Start with the basic understanding that the expected outcome is that Democrats will do well enough in the House to get more than the 23 seats they need to take the majority and that Republicans will do well enough in the Senate to protect or expand their one-seat majority there. When you’re there, you can also explore all of the data we’re able to get from the FNVA.īut you don’t need a probability meter and crosstabs to get a sense of which way things are heading.
Plus, you can watch our dials do their thing and keep track of every Senate and gubernatorial race as well as all of the hot House races at our midterms page. The new Fox News Voter Analysis will also give us some majorly cool prediction tools that you can watch on television starting at 6 p.m. On the Fox News Decision Desk we’re employing what we believe is the best method yet devised for not only making quick, accurate calls on races as well as the composition of the House and Senate but also to find out what’s motivating different groups of voters. And in fact, this can be a great deal of fun if you know where to watch and what to watch for. If you’ve already voted there’s nothing left for you to do but wait and see. **Want FOX News Halftime Report in your inbox every day? Sign up here.**Īre you gnawing pencils and pulling out your hair waiting to know how the 2018 vote is going to? Well, snap out of it! NEWYou can now listen to Fox News articles!
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